Stabilization

Has the U.S. economy started to enter a phase of stabilization? The following are indicators that point to this being the case.

• According to the Commerce Department/U.S. Census Bureau orders for durable goods or big-ticket manufactured goods rose for a second month increasing in July by 1.3% over June, which posted an equal level of increase. The July increase included jumps in orders for commercial aircraft, motor vehicles and transportation equipment. (Read more.)
• Consumer confidence is recovering. The Conference Board's index that measures consumers' moods rose to 56.9, which is the highest reading since May. The Conference Board's inflation expectation also dropped to 6.7%, the lowest level since March.
• The US dollar is on the rise against foreign currencies.
• Oil and gas prices are lower, and overall demand for oil in the US is down more than 5%.

When combined, these positive economic happenings indicate that we are starting to see signs of stabilization in the economy. Even with oil prices rising on fears that current weather issues could halt production in the Gulf of Mexico (where 25% of the US oil is produced), gasoline prices remain stable due to the aforementioned drop in consumption. This trend will give consumers disposable income that could be used for going out to eat, shopping for back to school, etc. This potential boost in consumer activity could lead to businesses needing to add staff, which in-turn would start to aid the labor economy. Given that current productivity levels are as high as they are, companies are likely going to have to add staff to meet the need of any increased demand for their products and services.

I am by no means trying to say that I believe we are solidly on our way to economic recovery as yet. The overall economy has a long way to go before we can use the good "R" word. Based on the information that is available, I personally think we are witnessing the economy beginning to stabilize. Once we experience a multi-month decline in the unemployment rate and the weekly jobless claims consistently fall below the 400,000 level, we can be confident that recovery has begun. I personally believe that this will come to fruition in 2009.

What are the key economic indicators that you watch closely and are important to your business or industry?

Get There First

A few years ago "Get There First" was our mantra. Given our impact and the impact of other alternative recruitment solutions on daily newspapers (which at the time was our number one prospecting tool), it became clear that we could no longer rely solely on any one source of leads to direct our calling efforts in acquiring new customers. We realized that we were going to have to take the initiative to build stronger relationships with our customers and earn the right to be their first choice when it came to recruitment advertising within the hourly bracket. In order to accomplish this goal, we were going to have to be first in line or "get there first" once our customer or prospect realized the urgency of his or her need.

I am reviewing this segment of our past because history always provides valuable lessons from which we should all learn. The current economic condition in the United States is not that far removed from the conditions with which we were all dealing just five or six years ago. Obviously, the overnight impact that 9/11 had on our nation was much greater, but the business climate and the mind set of many in the business and financial communities seems very similar as far as the outlook for the near term. So how can we not only grow in these times, but prosper?

The mantra and ideology of "get there first" still holds true today in combination with having higher expectations of our own performance and those of our coworkers, as well as the level of contributions of those with whom we choose to partner for success. We still have to make sure we have worked hard enough to earn our place in line when our customers are ready to recruit. There are thousands of companies that are still recruiting on an ongoing basis. Jobs will be relocated overseas, and jobs will be eliminated through technological advances, but you will still have companies hiring (especially hourly workers). Interestingly enough, these types of changes in our labor economy usually end up creating new job opportunities. Have you heard the terms "green collar jobs” being thrown around of late? I rest my case.

I view today's business climate as one in which businesses who out hustle, innovate, and build quality organizations that attract talent while never waning from their core ideology will prosper. This will happen by laying the foundation for success today for incredible growth tomorrow. How will we accomplish this at The Employment Guide? We will always do what is best for our customers. It is critical that everyone at all levels of our organization embraces this concept. We will be honest and ethical at all times. We will develop and promote from within. We will be committed to high expectations, and we will be fiscally responsible. We are not immune to the "hustle factor" and will also have to out hustle the competition. In a lot of instances, it is still a race to see who "gets there first." If you are first in line to satisfy your customer's need, why would they require that the same need be met by the next business, person or product that offers their services? They wouldn't and won't.

Do not underestimate the importance of effort. Yes, working smart is also very important, but there is a piece of basic business principals, especially sales, that will always be a numbers game. We have to make quality calls - and a lot of them.

The reward for our efforts will be a larger customer base from which to grow our business in the future. This could be the result of new products and services, opening new recruitment segments, or by continuing to earn more new customers by meeting the expectations of our current and future customers.

It is exciting times, simply because of the sheer amount of opportunity that is being created as a result of all of the problems we currently face as a nation. I once read that "the bigger the problem, the bigger the opportunity." No wonder the races to see who will represent each of the two large political parties in the upcoming Presidential election are so closely contested.

Murphy's Law and Leadership

1> If anything can go wrong, it will (e.g. if you drop a piece of toast, it will inevitably fall jam-side down.)
2> Nothing is as easy as it looks.
3> Everything takes longer than you think it will.
4> Whatever you've planned to do costs more than the original estimate.
5> There is nothing sadder than a great idea whose time has not come.
6> Whatever project you set out to do,some other project must be done first.
7> Although you can't fool all of the people all of the time, you can sure fool a lot of the people a lot of the time.
8> By making something perfectly clear, someone will be totally confused.
9> Every great idea has a disadvantage equal to, or exceeding, the greatness of the idea.
10> Precise planning, minute attention to detail and exact timing never succeed like dumb luck.

Here is the link to the above list that I found through a search on Google. http://ibm.mtsac.edu/~rlee/axioms4.html

You might be wondering what Murphy's Law and leadership have in common or how they could be relative. I am using this as a demonstration of why it is important for leaders to invest time in the proper preparation of their resources to execute their strategic plans despite the emergence of unforeseen obstacles. A vision needs to be cast by the leader, and then the real investment of time, efforts, money, etc., will begin. As a leader, I encourage you to slow down your efforts or "pull back the reigns" on yourself to make sure that the journey is one of not only accomplishment but of professional development. Even if you do everything right, Murphy's Law can still render itself in an attempt to negatively impact your ability to be successful. Good leaders are prepared and knowingly have a contingency plan or excess capacity in order to deal with detrimental issues. If properly prepared, strong leaders will overcome and lead their teams to higher levels regardless of the magnitude of obstacles. Just like the Boy Scouts say...."Be Prepared."

In what way has Murphy's Law made an appearance with regards to your business? Did you have your contingency plan ready?